Fed hike bets ease as yields fall, with Warsh set to speak tonight
Treasury yields and the dollar slid even after a second hot inflation report.
Fed and Rates · Thursday, October 15, 2026 · 12:30 PM ET
Bond yields fell and the dollar slipped from an 18-month high on Thursday as bets on an October Fed rate hike eased, even after two hot inflation reports this week.
Fed hike odds
CNBC, citing Reuters, said market pricing for an October hike rose to 50% after Wednesday's CPI report, then slipped after Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the central bank could wait for a clearer picture before its October 27-28 meeting. After this morning's producer price report, CNBC put the odds at nearly 34% on CME's FedWatch tool. See our Fed odds story and the PPI report.
Yields and the dollar
The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 14 basis points to 5.05% (Yahoo Finance). The dollar index was down 0.2% at 102.03 in morning trading and the euro gained 0.5% to $1.1216 (Reuters via CNBC).
Warsh speaks tonight
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok on Friday morning local time, which is 11:30 PM Thursday in New York (CNBC, GMT Eight). GMT Eight said Friday is also the last day officials can speak publicly before the quiet period ahead of the Fed's October 27-28 meeting.