Oil eases after Trump's Russian diesel deal, but analysts see little relief
Brent held near $104 as traders doubted the plan would lower diesel prices.
Oil · Monday, October 12, 2026 · 6:15 AM ET
Oil prices eased on Monday after President Donald Trump declared an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine and announced a deal for Russia to supply diesel. Analysts say the deal is unlikely to do much for prices (CNBC, Reuters, ABC).
The deal
CNBC reports Trump announced a staged release of Russian diesel: an initial amount immediately, more in November, and a further 3 million tons depending on the condition of Russia's refineries. ABC reports similar stages. Reuters says details remain unclear and the plan faces political opposition in Washington. Jefferies' chief European economist Mohit Kumar said in a note that the deal has also drawn opposition from European leaders because it works around Russian sanctions (CNBC).
Prices
Brent crude was down 0.3% at $104.37 a barrel and US crude futures were down 0.6% at $91.33 in Reuters' morning report, below a recent top of $109.97 for Brent. By 4:41 AM ET the Wall Street Journal had Brent down 0.6% at $104.90 and WTI down 0.8% at $91.10. CNBC says oil later rose. Check a live quote before you rely on any price here.
Analysts doubt the volumes will matter. Kumar said the amounts agreed are unlikely to make a substantial difference (CNBC), and ABC says experts do not expect it to "move the dial" on costs. CNBC says US diesel averaged a record $6.5276 a gallon in late September, according to AAA.
Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said the outlook is still uncertain: attacks on Riyadh and fighting around Bab el-Mandeb leave upside risk for oil and shipping costs, alongside the continuing Strait of Hormuz disruption (Reuters). For background, see our story on the oil jump on shipping attacks.