CPI preview: gasoline is expected to lift September inflation to 3.7%
Wednesday's report is the main data point of the week; the core reading is the one to watch.
Economy · Tuesday, October 13, 2026 · 12:30 PM ET
The September Consumer Price Index comes out Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET, and forecasters expect gasoline to push the annual rate up. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal expect 3.7% over 12 months, up from 3.4% in August, which Investopedia says would be the highest since May.
Energy is the driver
Investopedia ties the expected jump to fuel prices disrupted by the Iran war. InvestingLive says the market expects a 0.6% monthly rise in headline CPI, with energy up around 5.5%, led by gasoline.
The core number
Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, is the figure traders will watch. Investopedia reports a forecast of 2.5% annually, up from 2.4%. InvestingLive puts the forecast at 2.4%, unchanged, with a monthly gain near 0.2%. The two outlets use different forecast sources, so the final consensus may differ slightly.
Why it matters
Investopedia says a hotter-than-expected report could pressure the Fed to raise rates later this month, while InvestingLive says odds of an October hike have fallen to roughly one in four after weak September payrolls. Producer prices and retail sales follow on Thursday (CNBC). Background: our week-ahead story and the 8 AM Toast & Tickers.