Warsh gives no hint on October, says AI path will be bumpy
The Fed chair declined to signal the next move as futures held near flat.
Fed · Friday, October 16, 2026 · 6:15 AM ET
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined on Friday to say what the Fed will do at its meeting later this month, saying he does not "prejudge meetings" (CNBC). He also said the road to an AI-driven economy "is likely to be a very bumpy one" (AFP, CNBC).
No hint on October
Speaking in Bangkok at the IMF-World Bank meetings, Warsh said he does not "believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year," CNBC reported. He said the Fed is "not in that business anymore" of forward guidance. AFP said markets expect the Fed to hold this month and raise rates by a quarter point in December, after it raised rates in September for the first time in three years. Goldman Sachs economists wrote that Warsh's comments suggest the Fed will pause in October, and that they still expect a final hike in December (CNBC). For the odds going in, see yesterday morning story on Fed hike bets and our Fed odds story.
Warsh also said "almost everywhere in the global economy" is showing resilience he would not have predicted five or six months ago (AFP). He described a "synchronous tightening" by central banks worldwide, with "no free riders" (CNBC).
AI: big benefit, bumpy path
Warsh called AI the "most consequential change" to the global economy in his lifetime and said it would bring "a huge benefit to the global economy, to the US economy over the horizon," but that the AI boom would push prices up in the short term (AFP, CNBC TV18). The "path from where we are to there is likely to be a very bumpy one," he said. This week's selloff is covered in our chip stocks story.
Futures and the day ahead
U.S. stock futures were little changed to slightly higher, Reuters and Stocktwits reported, after the S&P 500 rose 0.3% and the Dow 1.1% on Thursday (Investing.com). The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 5.09% on Thursday after hotter-than-expected inflation data, and CME's FedWatch tool showed about a 67% chance of a hike by December, Investing.com reported, citing Reuters. Inflation was in the news again, with Thursday producer prices the latest hot reading.
XTB's calendar and investingLive both list U.S. import prices and industrial production later this morning, with investingLive calling them low-tier releases. Truist, M&T Bank, Citizens, Regions and Travelers report before the open, per XTB. M&T said it earned $775 million, or $5.04 a share, in the third quarter (M&T press release); XTB had listed an analyst forecast of $4.98.